659
FXUS66 KSTO 142221
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
221 PM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the
next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing.


.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Lingering showers are expected through early this afternoon,
   then additional showers spread from the south tomorrow through
   Sunday morning
 - A colder system will bring more widespread rain and snow Sunday
   PM into Monday. Breezy southerly winds will accompany the
   system, along with isolated thunderstorms on Monday.
 - Drier conditions return on Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by
   a weaker weather system late Wednesday into Thursday.


.DISCUSSION...

...Today (November 14) through Sunday AM... Showers will continue
to spread northward over the eastern Valley and the Sierra
foothills/mountains through the afternoon. Additional
precipitation amounts are forecast to be less than 0.50" and snow
levels are expected to remain above 8000 feet. Shower activity
is expected to taper off through the evening and into the
overnight period.

Light showers are expected Saturday into Sunday morning as an
upper low pushes northward. Precipitation amounts did trend
higher, with the highest amounts over the eastern Valley and
Sierra foothills/mountains. Forecast precipitation totals are
0.75" or less north of I-80 and between 0.50-1.00 southward in the
Valley. Amounts over the mountains and foothills are generally
between 1.00 to 1.75 inches. Snow levels trended slightly lower,
but will start out above 8000 before dropping down to 6000 Sunday
morning with accumulations of 4 to 10 inches above 6000 feet
south of I-80 in the Sierra. Onshore winds will also increase over
the weekend with the strongest gusts in the Delta and northern
Sacramento Valley. Forecast gusts are between 30 to 40 mph.

...Sunday PM through Early Next Week...
There is potential for another round of light to moderate
precipitation late Sunday into Monday as colder weather system
drops down from the north. WPC Guidance shows the latest
precipitation totals to be around 0.50-1.00" in the Valley and
Delta, with 1.00-1.50" in the foothills and mountains. This
system will be colder, with snow levels around 7000 feet late
Sunday, lowering to around 5500-6000 feet by Monday morning.
Additionally there is a 10 to 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms
Monday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds are also expected with
this system, with forecast gusts between 25 to 35 mph.

...Mid to Late Next Week...

Drier conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday morning.
Then, a weaker system approaches the region late week.


.AVIATION...

Lingering areas of MVFR/IFR conditions due to low clouds and
light showers through 00z-03z Saturday. Local MVFR/IFR conditions
due to low clouds and/or BR across portions of the northern San
Joaquin Valley 12z-18z Saturday. Additional showers will bring
periods of MVFR/local IFR conditions after 18z Saturday, becoming
more widespread Saturday night. Surface winds generally 12kts or
less, except for locally breezy north to east gusts 15-20 kts
across portions of the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains
15z-21z Saturday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$